Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance.

Full Abstract

People who score low on a performance test overestimate their own performance relative to others, whereas high scorers slightly underestimate their own performance. J. Kruger and D. Dunning (1999) attributed these asymmetric errors to differences in metacognitive skill. A replication study showed no evidence for mediation effects for any of several candidate variables. Asymmetric errors were expected because of statistical regression and the general better-than-average (BTA) heuristic. Consistent with this parsimonious model, errors were no longer asymmetric when either regression or the BTA effect was statistically removed. In fact, high rather than low performers were more error prone in that they were more likely to neglect their own estimates of the performance of others when predicting how they themselves performed relative to the group.

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Author information

Author/s: Krueger, Joachim (J); Mueller, Ross A (RA);

Affiliation: Department of Psychology, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912, USA. Joachim_Krueger(-atsign-)Brown.edu

Journal and publication information

Publication Type: Journal Article

Journal: Journal of personality and social psychology (J Pers Soc Psychol), published in United States. (Language: eng)

Reference: 2002-Feb; vol 82 (issue 2) : pp 180-8

Dates: Created 2002/02/07; Completed 2002/08/20; Revised 2004/11/17;

PMID: 11831408, status: MEDLINE (last retrieval date: 12/26/2008)

Sourced from the National Library of Medicine. Abstract text and other information may be subject to copyright.

Comments and Corrections

CommentIn: J Pers Soc Psychol. 2002 Feb;82(2):189-92. (PMID: 11831409)

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MeSH headings (categories)

This article was linked to the MESH Headings shown below.

Adult
Awareness
Cognition
Humans

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