The role of individual differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.

Full Abstract

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in underconfidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N= 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.

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Author information

Author/s: Pallier, Gerry (G); Wilkinson, Rebecca (R); Danthiir, Vanessa (V); Kleitman, Sabina (S); Knezevic, Goran (G); Stankov, Lazar (L); Roberts, Richard D (RD);

Affiliation: School of Psychology, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia. gerryp@psych.usyd.edu.au

Journal and publication information

Publication Type: Journal Article

Journal: The Journal of general psychology (J Gen Psychol), published in United States. (Language: eng)

Reference: 2002-Jul; vol 129 (issue 3) : pp 257-99

Dates: Created 2002/09/12; Completed 2003/02/04; Revised 2004/11/17;

PMID: 12224810, status: MEDLINE (last retrieval date: 11/6/2008)

Sourced from the National Library of Medicine. Abstract text and other information may be subject to copyright.

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