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| Research article summary (published 30 Dec 2002): |
Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability: frequency or nested sets?
Full Abstract
Recent probability judgment research contrasts two opposing views. Some theorists have emphasized the role of frequency representations in facilitating probabilistic correctness; opponents have noted that visualizing the probabilistic structure of the task sufficiently facilitates normative reasoning. In the current experiment, the following conditional probability task, an isomorph of the "Problem of Three Prisoners" was tested. "A factory manufactures artificial gemstones. Each gemstone has a 1/3 chance of being blurred, a 1/3 chance of being cracked, and a 1/3 chance of being clear. An inspection machine removes all cracked gemstones, and retains all clear gemstones. However, the machine removes 1/2 of the blurred gemstones. What is the chance that a gemstone is blurred after the inspection?" A 2 x 2 design was administered. The first variable was the use of frequency instruction. The second manipulation was the use of a roulette-wheel diagram that illustrated a "nested-sets" relationship between the prior and the posterior probabilities. Results from two experiments showed that frequency alone had modest effects, while the nested-sets instruction achieved a superior facilitation of normative reasoning. The third experiment compared the roulette-wheel diagram to tree diagrams that also showed the nested-sets relationship. The roulette-wheel diagram outperformed the tree diagrams in facilitation of probabilistic reasoning. Implications for understanding the nature of intuitive probability judgments are discussed.
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Author information
Author/s: Yamagishi, Kimihiko (K);
Affiliation: Graduate School of Decision Science & Technology, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan. kimihiko(-atsign-)ky.hum.titech.ac.jp
Journal and publication information
Publication Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Journal: Experimental psychology (Exp Psychol), published in Germany. (Language: eng)
Reference: 2003-; vol 50 (issue 2) : pp 97-106
Dates: Created 2003/04/15; Completed 2003/07/03; Revised 2006/11/15;
PMID: 12693194, status: MEDLINE (last retrieval date: 11/6/2008)
Sourced from the National Library of Medicine. Abstract text and other information may be subject to copyright.
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